Sergio Massawill have two objectives tonight the last presidential debate: present their social and economic proposals with the aim of convincing the undecided that they can define the runoff and, at the same time, expose your rivalthe libertarian Javier Miley, as an aggressive and unstable personality.
The minister/candidate studied and rehearsed throughout Saturday, aware that tonight An important portion of their luck is at stake for next Sunday’s second round. Massa knows, at the same time, that arrives at the last debate as a favorite, both because of his experience in this type of confrontation, and because Milei did not have outstanding performances in the two previous editions of this year. That’s why she assumes that the libertarian deputy is going to throw him with thick ammunition: from economic data, to corruption cases or the latest revelations of illegal espionage.
Throughout the week, and in the midst of official activities and the campaign, Too much review ideas and discursive axes with his team, but yesterday he concentrated in the bunker on Avenida del Libertador, in Retiro, where he worked with his closest circle on the details of his presentation at the Assembly Hall of the Faculty of Law of the UBA. His wife is on the front line of that team. Malena Galmarinithe Catalan consultant Antoni Gutiérrez-Rubíthe deputy chief of staff, Juan Manuel Olmosthe mayor of San Fernando, Juan Andreottiand your communication advisor, Santiago García Vázquez.
A preview of Massa’s strategy for the third debate can be traced in the campaign spot that emerged in the last hours, which proposed reflecting on “the danger of electing someone unstable and violent to assume presidential responsibilities.” It is an audiovisual piece that highlights the functions and powers of the president, as supreme head of the Nation, on whom issues as serious as declaring a war depend. “Imbalance or aggressiveness are very dangerous for those who have such a degree of power.” is the idea that emerges from the spot.
Among the collaborators of the Unión por la Patria candidate, they highlighted that Milei “wants to govern by decree” and warned about the risks of implementing some of the ideas he put forward during the campaign. “The moderate Milei at the end of the campaign is not real. Milei is confused and unstable“, is the message that transcended. In the video, children and adults are seen reading the powers of the President that appear in article 99, of the third chapter of the National Constitution, while in the background, on screens, Milei is seen and heard pronouncing her most controversial phrases. . “On November 19, I elected a President,” closes the video signed by Unión por la Patria.
Beyond that, in the debate Massa will also reinforce the idea of calling for a new stage, forming “a national unity government with the best and the best ideas.” This week he left two clues about this: in Córdoba he confirmed that if he reaches the first magistracy his Minister of Economy will not be of his political strength and then it emerged that he will offer radicalism to participate in areas of Justice and Education. This line has to do with the fact that the tendency and desire for change dominates in the electorate, so the chances of the Unión por la Patria candidate depend on whether he can be shown as a “foreseeable change”, as opposed to “change as a leap to the empty”. But a change at last.
Among other proposals, the reform of the system of social plans and subsidies stands out, to move to employment programs. It is a measure that he announced two weeks ago, which seeks to defuse criticism and rejection of picketing movements associated with clientelism. He will also propose a change to the administration style that is identified with Kirchnerism: he will talk about the need to have an “efficient State” with control of public spending, an objective that should anyway, in his opinion, be pursued “without “Let the Argentines who work pay the bill.” “Less taxes, with more work and production,” is the message, which includes one of the arguments that Milei staged with the chainsaw, which since the pact with Mauricio Macri disappeared as part of the electoral cotillion.
Massa will demonstrate a passionate defense of quality public education, incorporating technology and programming into the study plans, as well as the construction of more kindergartens. In the first case, she will insist on the idea that education be “with the children and the teachers in the classrooms”, an implicit challenge to the strikes and strikes that were motivated by unionists close to Kirchnerism. And in the second, he appeals to women, especially mothers, an electorate adverse to the libertarian candidate.
On the issue of security, Massa is going to present the so-called “tiger model”, a topic on which he knew how to position himself politically since his time as mayor of that party in the northern suburbs of Buenos Aires. He will detail both the human resources, the infrastructure and the material resources necessary to reduce crime, as well as highlight the results that this policy had in his district, which allowed him to reduce different types of crime, such as car theft. Linked to this, he will raise the defense of independence, but at the same time, the effectiveness of Justice, which the candidate usually exemplifies with the delays that judicial processes have for simple issues such as workers’ compensation, or more complex ones such as adoption. or convictions for economic crimes.
During the preparations for tonight’s presentation, yesterday the candidate published a message on his X (Twitter) account with a video where he appeared with Milei’s old television appearances, where he appears insulting and yelling. “Let the insult not become our language,” published the Unión por la Patria candidate, who received a quick reply from his rival from La Libertad Avanza. “Sergio Massa, at this point in such a dirty campaign, your intellectual dishonesty does not surprise me. You should also give the reason that prompted me to insult like that. Oh sure, that would imply the garbage of politics and its jobs that plunge us into misery. VLLC!”
Massa will have an unbeatable opportunity tonight to reduce the difference that the poll consensus assigns to Javier Milei. On the average of a dozen and a half public opinion polls, the majority places Milei with more than three points of difference, but they identify a much higher percentage of undecided people, soft voters, which oscillate between rejection of the ruling party and rejection of the libertarian. This is a labile universe, which will be the objective of the Unión por la Patria candidate, but also of the libertarian.
The consultant Federico Gonzalez He gave dimension to that group of voters. In dialogue with Infobae He highlighted that there are still, according to his measurements, 8% of undecided votes and “reversible” blank votes, that is, they are in a position to be stimulated to define themselves in one direction or another. And also, another 8% who state that they have made a decision, but that they could change it according to what they hear and see in the debate.
In numbers, according to the scrutiny of the National Electoral Chamber, Massa obtained 9,853,492 votes (36.78%), Milei garnered 8,034,990 (29.99%), Patricia Bullrich, 6,379,023 (23.81%), Juan Schiaretti, 1,802,068 (6.73%), and Myriam Bregman, 722,061 (2.7%). The Unión por la Patria candidate must speak to a sector of the opposition vote that did not choose him in the first round and choose him as the best second option or, to be clear, the least bad of the two.
As a theoretical runoff exercise, with 35.4 million eligible voters and an estimated participation of 75% and a minimum floor of 5% of blank or annulled votes, whoever is closest to 13 million votes will win. To achieve that goal, Massa should increase the votes of the first round by 30% and Milei should increase around 60%. Are more or less 3 million for the Minister of Economy and almost 5 million for the deputy of La Libertad Avanza, out of a total of nine million “orphan votes.”
The support of Natalia De la Sota and Alejandro “Topo” Rodríguez, who participated in Schiaretti’s proposal but refused to vote for Milei, is part of that narrative, as well as the winks of a sector of radicalism, in the style of the governor of Jujuy , Gerardo Morales, and other leaders, who called to vote for Massa against the ideas of the libertarian deputy.
Federico Aurelio, from the Aresco-Julio Aurelio pollster, summarized it clearly in the note he published on Friday Infobae: “The crux of the question is what happens with Bullrich’s 24 points and how Macri’s image behind Milei can influence.”
But it is not the only one, Milei also targets that sector. He took a first decisive step, which was the pact with Macri and Bullrich that implied unconditional support for his candidacy. Although the candidate clarified that there was nothing more than that, the truth is that after that approach the speech became more moderate, the mentions of setting fire to the Central Bank disappeared, the tone of dollarization was lowered and the image of the chainsaw disappeared.
Among the preparations, last night Massa went to the monumental faculty building in the Buenos Aires neighborhood of Palermo and reviewed how the stage for the debate finally turned out, since it had several modifications with the previous two. Unlike the one held at the Santiago del Estero Forum and the previous one at the Faculty of Law, the candidates this time will be at two lecterns and will be able to move, interrupt each other and dialogue in their presentations about the six topics that were agreed upon by all the parties involved.
In fact, this Saturday La Libertad Avanza asked the National Electoral Chamber, which organizes the mandatory debates, for clarification on the regulations to ensure that there are no interruptions. The new conditions established a more flexible format. The candidates will even be able to circulate, but the stage will be divided in two and none will be able to cross into the rival’s sector.
In the debate, the candidates at the time of speaking will have for each topic – there will be a maximum common length of 12 minutes – two initial minutes without interruptions and then four that they can complete, being questioned or interrogated by their rival and vice versa. This was the request made by La Libertad Avanza, so that Massa does not use interruptions as a strategy in the debate.
In the first edition, the debate had a rating of around 42 points, the second around 36. Millions of views on video platforms, on social networks and on portals. Before and after, television and radio programs, news in digital media, newspaper covers. An attention that only the tragedies that are televised or the National Team matches with Messi on the field get.
The post first appeared on www.infobae.com