happy Friday! Welcome back for more details on the MLB PrizePicks panel.
We have another full slate on Friday night with all 30 teams in action.
Let’s get straight into it and reveal some of my favorite picks today.
Luis Severino under 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Severino missed the first two months of the season due to a muscle strain, and has only made two appearances this season.
He struck out with just under 5.5 strikeouts in both starts, and finished with five strikeouts in each start.
His strike rate has seen a significant drop and is only 23.3% for the season.
He also managed a 9.5% swing average, so it’s not like he’s dealing with some bad luck.
The Whiff average has stabilized his slider at just 26.7%, down from 41.7% last season.
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Today, he had a brutal game with the Dodgers, who have a . 340 wOBA and 115 wRC+ against right-handed pitcher this season.
Both are second in the league.
Their projected lineup has just a 19.7% cumulative strike rate against right-handers this year, and they’ve walked the elite clip at 11.0%.
Severino is also likely still dealing with a limited series, as he only threw 75 and 83 pitches in his first two games.
It would be difficult for him to go deep in this match against an elite attack with a limited number of courts.
Love him getting under 5.5 strikeouts today.
Tyler Glasnow over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Glasnow made his first season appearance this past weekend against the Dodgers, returning from his 2021 Tommy John surgery and oblique injury in spring training.
He was allowed to throw 83 pitches across 4.1 innings, and he should only be stretched far from here.
Results were mixed as he struck out 8 for only 1 walk, but allowed 5 hits and 3 runs.
A bit of rust was to be expected after a long layoff, and I would call it a successful return for Glasnow.
Last we saw a healthy Glasnow in 2021, he was dominating the league with a strike rate of 36.2%.
He appeared to be on his way back to that level in his 2023 debut.
He averaged 96.5 MPH on his speedball, and generated elite punt rates on both the slider (62.5%) and curveball (54.5%).
His matchup against the Red Sox at Fenway Park isn’t perfect, but it’s better than his first matchup against the Dodgers.
The Red Sox are a low-hitting team overall, but the five at-bats in the bottom of the projected order have all batted at 24.4% or more against right-handed pitchers this season.
If he can limit damage from the top of the order, he should be able to rack up more than 6.5 hits.
Logan Webb over 5.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
An elite pitcher the past two seasons, Webb has taken it one step further this season.
He has a 3.02 SIERA, a 26.9% strikeout rate, and a 4.9% walk rate this year — all career bests.
Webb is off to his best start of the season, allowing just one run against the Brewers over 7.0 innings pitched.
He struck out 11, allowed only 4 hits, and issued only 1 walk.
Betting on baseball?
Today, he gets a game against an Orioles team that would be without one of their best hitters, as Cedric Mullins was recently placed at IL.
They signed Aaron Hicks to fill in for him after he was released by the Yankees, and he has a 29.3% strikeout percentage against right-handers this season.
Webb has one of the longest innings in baseball, averaging nearly 98 starts, and has thrown over 100 runs in five games this season.
He’s struck out over 5.5 strikeouts in 8 of his 11 starts this season.
I think he’s doing it again versus a watered down Orioles lineup.