happy Friday! Welcome back for more details about PrizePicks’ MLB panel.
We have another list loaded Friday night with 28 of the 30 teams in action.
Only the Wrigley afternoon game featuring the Cubs and Orioles starts before 7:05 ET, so we’ve got plenty of options tonight.
Let’s jump straight to some of my favorite picks.
Domingo is a German under 4.5 strikeout pitcher
Germany has put together a very strong season, even if it has been accompanied by some controversy over foreign materials (“stickies”) along the way.
He posted a solid 3.49 ERA which is mostly backed by estimators like SIERA (4.12) and xFIP (4.15).
His strike rate is roughly around the league average at 24.0%. Despite strong results so far this season, there are multiple reasons for choosing against Germany today.
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First, he averaged only 85.7 pitches in starts (except for a start where he was thrown out for foreign material after only 37 pitches).
It was only so effective because of the unsustainability of the .27 BABIP.
Also facing today is the Red Sox, who have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate (20.5%) against right-handed pitchers this season.
Their predicted lineup has achieved a GPA of 18.3% against right-handers this season.
Finally, he just bumped up against this Red Sox offense this past week.
Consecutive games against the same opponent historically result in fewer strikeouts and a shorter outing the second time around.
The German scored only 5 strikes in his confrontation with them last Saturday.
I think he scored less than 4.5 strikeouts at Fenway tonight.
Tylor Megill under 4.5 Pitcher Strikeouts
Megill has had a disaster season so far, with a 5.14 ERA starting in 13 starts.
The decline in his measurable skills was severe, with his strike rate coming in at just 16.9% and his walk rate as high as 12.1%.
He’s posted over 4.5 strikeouts in just 3 of his 13 games this year.
And now, he’s got a tough game against a Cardinal offense that has a record 0.324 wOBA and 106 wRC+ this season despite performing poorly to expectations as a team overall.
The Cardinals hit at the seventh-lowest average (21.6%) in MLB this season, and walked at the seventh-highest (9.1%).
The Cardinals should be able to use Megill’s lack of leadership against him and increase his field count.
I think he scored less than 4.5 strikeouts in his short outing today.
Zac Gallen over 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Gallen hasn’t been quite as dominant lately as he has been in starting starts this season, but he’s still well above average starting pitcher in the MLB.
He has a 27.0% strike rate on the season for only 5.5% walks.
He also gets deep in the games, averaging just over 94 home runs and 6 home runs per start.
Today, he got a game against Cleveland who ranks 5th in the standings in MLB with a . 294 wOBA and 85 wRC+ for right-handed pitching.
The downside to the matchup is that Cleveland has the lowest rate (19.1%) in the league right-handed right-handers.
But we’re getting a discount on the line here, as Gallen has hit more than 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 14 starts this season.
I think Gallen has a high chance of being able to get through at least 6 rounds with limited damage, and I’m confident enough to think he can land at least 6 hits despite Cleveland’s mastery of hookup.
Bryan Woo over 5.0 Pitcher Strikeouts
Woo was a sixth-round draft pick by the Mariners just two years ago in 2021.
He has flown through three tiers of the minor leagues in 2022, dominating a strikeout average of at least 31% per stop.
Seattle decided to give him an invitation to the major leagues after he continued his dominance at Double-A with a strike rate of 34.3% to start the season.
He hasn’t slowed down yet, posting a 33.3% strikeout rate over his first two MLB games.
Those first two starts came against two very good offenses in the Rangers (120 WRC+) and Angels (109 WRC+).
Today, he got a matchup with the White Sox (87 wRC+), an easier test than his first two.
Betting on baseball?
Woo was hitting 81 pitches in his last start against the Angels, and he should get that kind of leash again tonight.
He has featured elite swingers and misses at every minor level (except Triple-A since he skipped straight).
He has continued in the major leagues, producing a solid 13.3% swing average and 30.5% CSW% through two starts.
There’s no reason to think it’s slowing down anytime soon.
Would love to post 5+ hits tonight against the White Sox.