In a precedent that is the first of its kind in the history of the long Khartoum wars, the conflict between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces exceeded the fourth month without signs of an imminent end, especially in the absence of popular pressure that could be a supportive factor for the relentless Saudi-American efforts to reach a solution, which must go along with the continuous Arab and African support for peace efforts.
The insistence of the two sides on the war and achieving victory constituted the biggest challenge to the efforts to reach a solution to the crisis after their failure of the attempts of a permanent ceasefire, and the absence of a clear vision for the end of the battles.
Sudanese observers believe that the continuation of the war for a longer period will have negative repercussions on the lives of civilians, which may lead to the emergence of famine in light of the complications facing farmers and the difficulty of moving and obtaining financing, stressing that the continuation of the war may open the appetite for the entry of other parties that are still silent until today, and this in itself will transfer the conflict from two sides to a wide civil war, and it may develop into an ethnic one in which extremist and terrorist organizations and groups overlap; Which always exploits and settles conflict areas, as is the case in Somalia.
The observers warned of the danger of the conflict moving into the tribes, explaining that the warnings of the United Nations must be taken into account, and that work be done quickly to avoid the development of the conflict and its expansion to states that are still safe until the moment.
The number of Sudanese army personnel is about 105,000 new soldiers, and about 85,000 soldiers from the reserve forces, in addition to owning 191 warplanes that include 45 fighters, 37 attack aircraft, 25 fixed-wing military cargo planes, 12 training aircraft, in addition to 170 tanks, 6,967 military vehicles, about 389 artillery and 40 missile launchers, and it consists of five regional leaders; It is the central command in Khartoum, the eastern one in Gedaref, the western one in El Fasher, the central one in El Obeid, and the northern one in Shendi, while the Rapid Support Forces are estimated at more than 100,000 fighters.
Observers underestimated the importance of the army’s victory in Khartoum, stressing that any advance of the army in Khartoum would lead to an expansion of the conflict and the flight of the Rapid Support Forces to other safe states that still have military headquarters. Especially Darfur, which is a major center for rapid support, indicating that such a step may lead to the division of Sudan, which is the worst scenario that many fear, in addition to the army’s success in destroying the capabilities of rapid support and thwarting its plans to seize military air bases and airports.
According to military reports, the “Rapid Support Forces” resorted to a new tactic in recent weeks, represented by the use of anti-aircraft missiles and army marches, but this did not achieve any results, but rather put “Hemedti” forces on the defensive, committing crimes and violations against civilians and targeting hospitals and vital facilities, indicating that the Rapid Support Forces are having difficulty controlling the fortified camps of the army, in addition to losing about 4,500 to 6,000 armed vehicles in the past four months of the war out of a total of about 10,000 armed vehicles. According to the Center for Arab Experts, this in itself is the beginning of the Rapid Support Forces reaching the stage of military collapse unless it receives support from parties and beneficiaries of the conflict.
Sudanese experts pointed out that the Sudanese people still pin high hopes on the Jeddah talks and the regional pressure on the two sides of the conflict in Sudan to sit at the negotiating table and stop the fighting, stressing that the Saudi-American initiative aimed at bridging the rift between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces has restored much hope among the various segments of society, including the political components, especially after the success in concluding the truce during the last period, but it did not reach a definitive end to the fighting, which is what the Sudanese hope to communicate during the ongoing talks.
