The first fifth of the twenty-first century has passed. It is the century that American strategists considered the “American Century”, who were overwhelmed with great joy, which was represented in the collapse of their sworn enemy, the Soviet Union, and the eastern camp (Warsaw Pact) in 1991 AD. Which paved the way for the emergence of the “Golden Age of America”, which was represented in its uniqueness, until now (the year 2023 AD) at the world’s political-economic summit, to become the only pole for a continuous period of thirty years (1991-2023 AD). Before the twenty-first century began, those strategists had finished “identifying” the most important dangers and challenges that would face America in this 21st century. They concluded that the most prominent of these dangers that will face their country, and the West in general, in this century, and after the disappearance of the “communist danger”, are: China and radical Islam. But they did not expect that China would rise so quickly to the top of the world, as a second superpower, with the United States participating in this summit.
It is expected that Russia will join China this year, so that the global system will turn into a “multi-polar” system, and thus end the “America’s golden age” … which was embodied in the exclusivity of America alone for three decades, at the top of this system. The speed of China’s rise may have surprised Americans. So they began to consider the Chinese genie the first arch-enemy. economically, technically and politically, despite the continuing dangerous escalation in the Ukraine crisis. The other “risks” have receded in the face of the “Chinese threat” against the United States and its allies. It is a competitive force, comparable to the strength of all the West combined, and aspires to have an appropriate role and an audible word in international relations.
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These strategic developments are still prompting America to hasten attempts to circumvent China, through its allies, and contain it first, before confronting any other hostile party. It worked to direct a large part of its forces and political tools to the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. As for the Arab region (the Middle East), it must realize now that the United States, the annoying ally, has equal competitors who want to share with America the “cake” of the region, by paying monetary, technical, and even political considerations. China, in particular, is in dire need of the region’s oil and gas, unlike Russia, and the United States, which has always cared for the region for three considerations, exclusively serving the American interest and strategy, namely:
The flow of the region’s oil to it and its allies, at the lowest possible cost.
Ensuring the survival and hegemony of Israel.
Fighting “Islamic extremism”.
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The United States has become self-sufficient in oil and gas, and therefore no longer needs them directly, but it remains insistent on controlling its flow to its friends and enemies, and benefiting from its revenues, as much as possible. And the decline of Islamist violence, originally artificial – Israeli and American. As for Israel, it has become a major regional power, with its weapons of mass destruction and absolute Western support, which may guarantee its hegemony over the region temporarily. As for the long term, it is difficult to guarantee the “longevity” of this intruding entity, because it is a state of occupation and aggression par excellence. With all the elements of power that Israel possesses, it remains, in the eyes of most of the peoples of the region, and all the honorable people in the world, a usurping, occupying, and hateful entity. This raises questions about the future of this aggressive entity, especially if we take into account that “no right behind which serious demands will be lost.”
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The world has begun to witness an active American presence in the two oceans adjacent to China, and in the “China Sea” itself. Some of those who are angry at American policies wish to drown in that ocean. This region has become the most important for the current US strategy. Followed by, in importance, the Persian Gulf region, then Europe. It is not expected – as US strategists had previously hoped – that China would be preoccupied with itself within its wall. It began to open up to the world, and strongly. They also hoped that the climate imbalance would cause the ice of Siberia to melt, and Russia would drown. But Russia is determined – and capable, with its enormous potential – to become the third pole. In fact, these three giants will remain, in the short term, as key players coming on the global and regional arenas. And that the fiercest competition will take place between the American and Chinese giants, and to a much lesser extent – between America and Russia. This is if the two poles, the dragon and the bear, do not ally themselves against the cowboy, as it is the most dangerous common enemy for them.
The two largest and most dangerous (global) hotspots currently (Ukraine and Taiwan) are still hot. China’s unprecedented insistence on restoring Taiwan puts America in front of two options: either to respond to China’s desire, or to enter into a war with it, which, if it breaks out, will often develop into a global one. And Russia’s insistence on victory in Ukraine puts America before the same two options, either to retreat and to accept Russia’s demands, or to escalate to a world war. This makes the Sino-Russian alliance against America a very likely possibility, and makes the possibility of the destruction of the three poles and the world closer than ever before. The biggest and most dangerous concern of the world has become not development and comprehensive growth.. but rather the fear that these giants will soon clash with weapons of massive destruction.
